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Claudio Lapostol
Facultad de Economía y Negocios
UNAB

 
La verdad es que las autoridades ya nos tienen acostumbrados a indicar cifras de crecimiento y de expansión para Chile que no son reales. Datos entregados por el Ministro de Hacienda eran guarismos errados y que al poco andar fueron corregidos, a la baja, por el mismo Ministro, quien ha debido explicar que el erario chileno no es capaz de pagar las promesas económicas que se han ido legalizando.
Hoy el FMI advierte que el crecimiento de Chile ya no será de un 2,1% para este año 2016, sino que baja a un 1,5% su proyección, cifra muy acorde al promedio del IPOM, que cifró el crecimiento entre 1,25% y 2,25%, algo así como entre Tongoy y Los Vilos.

Nuestros vecinos que hablan que la libertad de negocios no es buena y pregonan que el Estado es un gran administrador, van a tener crecimientos muy malos, llevando la comparsa Venezuela con un crecimiento de un -8% y Ecuador un -4,5%. No es secreto para nadie hoy día los niveles de desabastecimiento que hay en Venezuela y que claramente el bienestar de ellos no debe ser muy bueno. En cambio, países de Sudamérica como Perú y Colombia, que han optado por un camino más libertario en economía, sus crecimientos serán de un 3,7% y 2,5% respectivamente, no olvidando que Argentina se está rearmando con su nueva administración y que no se pueden hacer milagros en los pocos meses que lleva Macri como Presidente.

Las razones de la baja en América Latina es el mal comportamiento del valor de las materias primas que hacen estos países y la poca diversificación y atractivo que tiene nuestra oferta exportadora. Por qué no tenemos una atractiva? Porque hoy la libertad de hacer negocios se ve en el horizonte con mayor restricción que antes y el emprendedor duda si hacer o no la innovación. México, el Caribe y América Central se están beneficiando de la recuperación de EE.UU. Nosotros que estamos más lejos, deberemos concentrarnos más en lo que nos lleve al crecimiento, pero lo que no se ha entendido es que para crecer se debe invertir, y eso hoy día no está ocurriendo.

Los discursos deben ser de trabajo y de estrategia de gestión, eso hoy no se ve.

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